Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAHOLEINONE-GESO26-2
Will there be 2+ holes-in-one at the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open?
Series: KXPGAHOLEINONE
Entity: 2+ holes-in-one
Expiration: 2026-07-26T03:00:00Z
Volume: 4269
YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the golfers in the tournament record at least 2 holes-in-one in the Genesis Scottish Open originally scheduled for Jul 8, 2026 to Jul 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAHOLEINONE-ISC26-2
Will there be 2+ holes-in-one at the 2026 ISCO Championship?
Series: KXPGAHOLEINONE
Entity: 2+ holes-in-one
Expiration: 2026-07-26T03:00:00Z
Volume: 1879
YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the golfers in the tournament record at least 2 holes-in-one in the ISCO Championship originally scheduled for Jul 8, 2026 to Jul 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:22:00Z
Code version: N/A
Reasoning: These are two separate tournaments; holes-in-one occurring in one has no logical bearing on the other.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-99.95%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.2200
+ ~$0.0120 est. fees
Days to maturity:
10
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-104.18%
BELOW HURDLE