Pair #10580

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-MARM

Will Marcus Armitage lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Marcus Armitage
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10499

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marcus Armitage is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-MARM

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Marcus Armitage finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Marcus Armitage
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2323

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marcus Armitage finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:22:00Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Final top-10 finish does not require leading after Round 3, and leading after Round 3 doesn't guarantee a top-10 final finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2400 + ~$0.0128 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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