Pair #10578

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-KVIL

Will Karl Vilips lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12430

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Karl Vilips is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-KVIL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Karl Vilips finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3894

YES ask: 0.9000
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.6100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Karl Vilips finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:22:00Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Final top-20 finish does not require leading after Round 3, and leading after Round 3 doesn't guarantee a top-20 final finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9000 + ~$0.0063 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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