Pair #10576

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-KVIL

Will Karl Vilips lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12430

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Karl Vilips is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-KVIL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Karl Vilips finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2358

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Karl Vilips finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:22:00Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Final top-10 finish does not require leading after Round 3, and leading after Round 3 doesn't guarantee a top-10 final finish (collapse possible in Round 4).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6200 + ~$0.0165 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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