Pair #10569

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-SYEL

Will Sudarshan Yellamaraju lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17327

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sudarshan Yellamaraju is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-SYEL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Sudarshan Yellamaraju finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3977

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sudarshan Yellamaraju finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:21:40Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after Round 3 does not guarantee final top 20, and final top 20 does not require having led after Round 3.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7600 + ~$0.0128 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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