Pair #10558

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-DWIL

Will Danny Willett lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Danny Willett
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3769

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Willett is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-DWIL

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Danny Willett finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Danny Willett
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8722

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Danny Willett finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:21:20Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical necessity between R3 lead and top-10 finish in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2400 + ~$0.0128 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue