Pair #10556

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-NVON

Will Nicolai Von Dellingshausen lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Nicolai Von Dellingshausen
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17008

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Von Dellingshausen is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-NVON

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Nicolai Von Dellingshausen finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nicolai Von Dellingshausen
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10437

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Von Dellingshausen finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:21:20Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical necessity between R3 lead and top-20 finish in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6100 + ~$0.0167 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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