Pair #10541

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-ASUL

Will Andy Sullivan lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Andy Sullivan
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7797

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andy Sullivan is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-ASUL

Will Andy Sullivan win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Andy Sullivan
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 14975

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0020

View on Kalshi

Rules If Andy Sullivan wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:21:01Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Different tournaments (The Open Championship vs Genesis Scottish Open); no logical connection between winning one and leading the other after Round 3.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -7.51% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0020 + ~$0.0001 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -11.74% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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