Pair #1054

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-JHIG

Valspar Championship: Will Joe Highsmith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Joe Highsmith
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20892

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joe Highsmith finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-JHIG

Valspar Championship: Will Joe Highsmith make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Joe Highsmith
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1536

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joe Highsmith makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:16:15Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 in the tournament requires playing the weekend rounds, which means making the cut. The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee top 20.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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