Pair #10537

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-MSCH

Will Matti Schmid lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 374

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matti Schmid is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-MSCH

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Matti Schmid finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matti Schmid
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2875

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matti Schmid finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:20:36Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No necessary logical relationship between leading at R3 and finishing top10 overall.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2500 + ~$0.0131 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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