Pair #10526

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-VPER

Will Victor Perez lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Victor Perez
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7400

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Victor Perez is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-VPER

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Victor Perez finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Victor Perez
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2391

YES ask: 0.4700
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Victor Perez finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:20:36Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after Round 3 does not guarantee a top-20 finish (could collapse in final round), and a top-20 finish doesn't require leading at R3.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4700 + ~$0.0174 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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