Pair #105

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26ABROWN-DEN

What will be A.J. Brown's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 26664

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If A.J. Brown's next team is Denver before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN

Will Denver be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3687

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:28Z

Reasoning: Denver making the playoffs does not require A.J. Brown to sign there, and Brown signing with Denver does not guarantee they make the playoffs. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -60.14% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5900
Days to maturity: 184
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -64.42% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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