Pair #10485

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAHOLEINONE-GESO26-1

Will there be 1+ holes-in-one at the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAHOLEINONE
Entity: 1+ holes-in-one
Expiration: 2026-07-26T03:00:00Z
Volume: 4428

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If the golfers in the tournament record at least 1 hole-in-one in the Genesis Scottish Open originally scheduled for Jul 8, 2026 to Jul 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAHOLEINONE-ISC26-1

Will there be 1+ holes-in-one at the 2026 ISCO Championship?

Series: KXPGAHOLEINONE
Entity: 1+ holes-in-one
Expiration: 2026-07-26T03:00:00Z
Volume: 500

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.4500

View on Kalshi

Rules If the golfers in the tournament record at least 1 hole-in-one in the ISCO Championship originally scheduled for Jul 8, 2026 to Jul 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:19:23Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Separate tournaments; hole-in-one occurrences are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3600 + ~$0.0179 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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