Pair #10484

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAHOLEINONE-GESO26-1

Will there be 1+ holes-in-one at the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAHOLEINONE
Entity: 1+ holes-in-one
Expiration: 2026-07-26T03:00:00Z
Volume: 4428

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If the golfers in the tournament record at least 1 hole-in-one in the Genesis Scottish Open originally scheduled for Jul 8, 2026 to Jul 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAHOLEINONE-THOC26-1

Will there be 1+ holes-in-one at the 2026 The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAHOLEINONE
Entity: 1+ holes-in-one
Expiration: 2026-08-02T07:00:00Z
Volume: 11429

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If the golfers in the tournament record at least 1 hole-in-one in the The Open Championship originally scheduled for Jul 16, 2026 to Aug 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:19:23Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Separate tournaments; hole-in-one occurrences are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5000 + ~$0.0188 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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