Pair #10480

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-JSMI

Will Jordan L. Smith lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 35053

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-JSMI

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6377

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:19:23Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after Round 3 does not guarantee a top-10 finish, nor does a top-10 finish require having led after Round 3.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6300 + ~$0.0163 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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