Pair #10478

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-JSMI

Will Jordan L. Smith lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 35053

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JSMI

Will Jordan L. Smith win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 463676

YES ask: 0.0050
NO ask: 0.9960
Last: 0.0050

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:19:23Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Different tournaments; winning The Open Championship has no logical connection to leading Round 3 of the Scottish Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -17.69% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0050 + ~$0.0003 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -21.92% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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