Pair #10456

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-NHOJ

Will Nicolai Hojgaard lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6191

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Hojgaard is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-NHOJ

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 18698

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:18:34Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical necessity between leading after Round 3 and a top-20 final finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8300 + ~$0.0099 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue