Pair #10454

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-NHOJ

Will Nicolai Hojgaard lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6191

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Hojgaard is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-NHOJ

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12349

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:18:34Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after Round 3 doesn't guarantee a top-10 final finish (collapse possible), and a top-10 finish doesn't require having led after Round 3.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.76% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1700 + ~$0.0099 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.99% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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