Pair #10447

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-NHOJ

Will Nicolai Hojgaard lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6191

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Hojgaard is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-NHOJ

The Open Championship: Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Nicolai Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5885

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Nicolai Hojgaard finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:18:12Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Different tournaments; no logical connection.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -89.59% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600 + ~$0.0039 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -93.82% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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