Pair #1044

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JPAR

Valspar Championship: Will John Parry finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: John Parry
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1542

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If John Parry finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-JPAR

Valspar Championship: Will John Parry finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: John Parry
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 37220

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If John Parry finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:16:00Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue