Pair #10439

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-RGER

Will Ryan Gerard lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9926

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Gerard is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-RGER

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Ryan Gerard finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1725

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Gerard finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:17:51Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after Round 3 doesn't guarantee a top 5 final finish, and vice versa is not required.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -97.50% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000 + ~$0.0063 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -101.73% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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