Pair #10436

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-RGER

Will Ryan Gerard lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9926

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Ryan Gerard is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-RGER

Will Ryan Gerard win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1309613

YES ask: 0.0070
NO ask: 0.9940
Last: 0.0070

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Gerard wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:17:51Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning The Open Championship has no logical connection to leading Round 3 of a different tournament (Genesis Scottish Open).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -23.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0070 + ~$0.0005 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -28.06% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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