Pair #10435

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-RGER

Will Ryan Gerard lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8025

YES ask: 0.0090
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0080

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Gerard is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-RGER

Will Ryan Gerard lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9926

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Gerard is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:17:51Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: These are separate tournaments; leading Round 1 of one event has no bearing on leading Round 3 of a different event.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -17.21% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0080 + ~$0.0008 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -21.44% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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