Pair #10423

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-WCLA

Will Wyndham Clark lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 68942

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-WCLA

Will Wyndham Clark win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2094558

YES ask: 0.0240
NO ask: 0.9770
Last: 0.0240

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:17:31Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Different tournaments with no logical connection between the two outcomes.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -60.31% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0240 + ~$0.0016 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -64.54% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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