Pair #10414

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26CMCDAVID97-EDM

What will be Connor McDavid's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Edmonton Oilers
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 259

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.9000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Connor McDavid's next team is Edmonton Oilers before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHL-27-EDM

Will Edmonton Oilers win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Edmonton Oilers
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 11620

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Edmonton Oilers wins the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:17:05Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Edmonton winning the Cup does not require McDavid to remain/join the team, and vice versa is not guaranteed.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -24.13% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800 + ~$0.0052 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -28.51% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue