Pair #10413

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26ZWERENSKI8-DAL

What will be Zach Werenski's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Dallas Stars
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 722

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Zach Werenski's next team is Dallas Stars before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHL-27-DAL

Will Dallas Stars win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Dallas Stars
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 21905

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Dallas Stars wins the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:17:05Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Dallas winning the Cup does not require Werenski to be on the team, and Werenski joining Dallas does not guarantee the Cup win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -16.10% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500 + ~$0.0033 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -20.48% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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