Pair #10403

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 102378

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1600

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Rules

If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7678

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:16:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Different, unrelated tournaments; no logical necessity between these outcomes.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2500 + ~$0.0131 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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