Pair #1040

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 20432

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

Rules

If Jordan Spieth wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JSPI

Valspar Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21438

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan Spieth finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:16:00Z

Reasoning: Winning a major has no logical connection to finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship. Neither direction implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -26.73% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -31.01% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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