Pair #10399

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 9297

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 102378

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:16:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Different tournaments; no logical necessity exists between these separate events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.3400 + ~$0.0197 est. fees
Days to maturity: 2
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue