Pair #10390

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXOWGRRANK-26AUGT20-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Aug 3, 2026?

Series: KXOWGRRANK
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-03T14:00:00Z
Volume: 220

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy is ranked in the top 20 (including ties) on the Official World Golf Ranking on August 3rd, 2026 at 10:00am EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-RMCI

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 72018

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:16:26Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: A top-20 finish at one tournament does not logically guarantee a top-20 world ranking on a later date.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5400 + ~$0.0192 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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