Antecedent (if this happens)
KXOWGRRANK-26AUGT20-RMCI
Will Rory McIlroy be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Aug 3, 2026?
Series: KXOWGRRANK
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-03T14:00:00Z
Volume: 220
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Rory McIlroy is ranked in the top 20 (including ties) on the Official World Golf Ranking on August 3rd, 2026 at 10:00am EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-GESO26-RMCI
Genesis Scottish Open: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 32359
YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:16:26Z
Code version: N/A
Reasoning: No logical necessity links a top-5 finish at one event to a specific ranking outcome later.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-99.96%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.4600
+ ~$0.0195 est. fees
Days to maturity:
18
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-104.19%
BELOW HURDLE