Pair #10384

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXOWGRRANK-26AUGT20-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Aug 3, 2026?

Series: KXOWGRRANK
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-03T14:00:00Z
Volume: 220

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy is ranked in the top 20 (including ties) on the Official World Golf Ranking on August 3rd, 2026 at 10:00am EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1744685

YES ask: 0.0790
NO ask: 0.9220
Last: 0.0790

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:16:26Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a tournament strongly correlates with high ranking but does not logically guarantee a specific ranking position on a future date due to the OWGR formula's dependence on other players' results.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -66.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0490 + ~$0.0071 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -71.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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