Antecedent (if this happens)
KXOWGRRANK-26AUGT20-RMCI
Will Rory McIlroy be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Aug 3, 2026?
Series: KXOWGRRANK
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-03T14:00:00Z
Volume: 220
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Rory McIlroy is ranked in the top 20 (including ties) on the Official World Golf Ranking on August 3rd, 2026 at 10:00am EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-THOC26-RMCI
The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 58125
YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:16:01Z
Code version: N/A
Reasoning: World ranking on a specific date is not logically tied to a single tournament finish; no necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-99.99%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.5300
+ ~$0.0193 est. fees
Days to maturity:
18
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-104.22%
BELOW HURDLE