Pair #10379

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26ATUCH89-WSH

What will be Alex Tuch's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Washington Capitals
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 293

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Tuch's next team is Washington Capitals before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHL-27-WSH

Will Washington Capitals win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Washington Capitals
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 26602

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Washington Capitals wins the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:16:01Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Washington winning the Cup does not require or guarantee Alex Tuch being on the team, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -16.10% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500 + ~$0.0033 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -20.48% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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