Pair #10378

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-WSH

What will be Auston Matthews's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Washington Capitals
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 218

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Auston Matthews's next team is the Washington Capitals before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26ATUCH89-WSH

What will be Alex Tuch's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Washington Capitals
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 293

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alex Tuch's next team is Washington Capitals before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:16:01Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Two different players' team destinations are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -90.39% (negative yield)
Cost: $2.0000 + ~$0.0000 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -94.77% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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