Pair #10377

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-WSH

What will be Auston Matthews's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Washington Capitals
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 218

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Auston Matthews's next team is the Washington Capitals before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHL-27-WSH

Will Washington Capitals win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Washington Capitals
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 26602

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Washington Capitals wins the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:16:01Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No necessity between Matthews's team and that team's championship outcome.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -16.10% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500 + ~$0.0033 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -20.48% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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