Pair #10375

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-UTA

What will be Auston Matthews's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Utah Mammoth
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 812

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Auston Matthews's next team is the Utah Mammoth before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLWEST-27-UTA

Will the Utah Mammoth win the Western Conference Finals?

Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: Utah Mammoth
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 239

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If the Utah Mammoth win the 2026-27 NHL Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:16:01Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No necessity between Matthews's team and that team's conference finals outcome.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -26.58% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900 + ~$0.0057 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -30.96% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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