Pair #10374

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-UTA

What will be Auston Matthews's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Utah Mammoth
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 812

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Auston Matthews's next team is the Utah Mammoth before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHL-27-UTA

Will Utah Mammoth win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Utah Mammoth
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 5905

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Utah Mammoth wins the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:16:01Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No necessity between Matthews's team and that team's championship outcome.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -13.17% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -17.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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