Pair #10373

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-STL

What will be Auston Matthews's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: St. Louis Blues
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2452

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Auston Matthews's next team is the St. Louis Blues before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHL-27-STL

Will St. Louis Blues win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: St. Louis Blues
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 7487

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If St. Louis Blues wins the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:16:01Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No necessity between Matthews's team and that team's championship outcome.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -6.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200 + ~$0.0014 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -11.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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