Pair #10372

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNHL-27-SJ

Will San Jose Sharks win the 2026-27 Stanley CupĀ® Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: San Jose Sharks
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 64764

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If San Jose Sharks wins the 2026-27 Stanley CupĀ® Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLWEST-27-SJ

Will the San Jose Sharks win the Western Conference Finals?

Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: San Jose Sharks
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 312

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If the San Jose Sharks win the 2026-27 NHL Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:16:01Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: To win the Stanley Cup Finals, a Western Conference team must first win the Western Conference Finals.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -16.89% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1800 + ~$0.0147 est. fees
Days to maturity: 351
Hurdle yield: 4.51%
Excess yield: -21.40% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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