Pair #10371

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-SJ

What will be Auston Matthews's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: San Jose Sharks
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 518

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Auston Matthews's next team is the San Jose Sharks before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHLWEST-27-SJ

Will the San Jose Sharks win the Western Conference Finals?

Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: San Jose Sharks
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 312

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If the San Jose Sharks win the 2026-27 NHL Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:16:01Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical connection between a player's team assignment and that team's playoff performance.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -50.60% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2200 + ~$0.0120 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -54.98% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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