Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-SJ
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?
Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: San Jose Sharks
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 518
YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Auston Matthews's next team is the San Jose Sharks before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXNHLWEST-27-SJ
Will the San Jose Sharks win the Western Conference Finals?
Series: KXNHLWEST
Entity: San Jose Sharks
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 312
YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.2300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If the San Jose Sharks win the 2026-27 NHL Western Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:16:01Z
Code version: N/A
Reasoning: No logical connection between a player's team assignment and that team's playoff performance.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-50.60%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.2200
+ ~$0.0120 est. fees
Days to maturity:
108
Hurdle yield:
4.38%
Excess yield:
-54.98%
BELOW HURDLE