Pair #10370

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-SJ

What will be Auston Matthews's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: San Jose Sharks
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 518

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Auston Matthews's next team is the San Jose Sharks before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHL-27-SJ

Will San Jose Sharks win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: San Jose Sharks
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 64764

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If San Jose Sharks wins the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:16:01Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Matthews joining the Sharks does not guarantee the team wins the Stanley Cup, and the Sharks winning the Cup does not require Matthews to be on the team.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -16.10% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500 + ~$0.0033 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -20.48% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue