Pair #1037

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JSPI

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2647

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JSPI

Valspar Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21438

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:16:00Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major, so finishing top 10 in all 4 majors has no bearing on Valspar performance. Neither direction implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -74.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2300
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -78.27% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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