Pair #10369

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-PHI

What will be Auston Matthews's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Philadelphia Flyers
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 212

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Auston Matthews's next team is the Philadelphia Flyers before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHL-27-PHI

Will Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Philadelphia Flyers
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 9017

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Philadelphia Flyers wins the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:41Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Matthews joining Philadelphia does not imply Philadelphia wins the Cup, nor vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -10.11% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300 + ~$0.0020 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -14.49% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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