Pair #10367

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-MIN

What will be Auston Matthews's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Minnesota Wild
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 863

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Auston Matthews's next team is the Minnesota Wild before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHL-27-MIN

Will Minnesota Wild win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Minnesota Wild
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 38213

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Minnesota Wild wins the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:41Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Matthews joining Minnesota does not imply Minnesota wins the Cup, nor vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -21.57% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700 + ~$0.0046 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -25.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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