Pair #10366

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-MIN

What will be Auston Matthews's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Minnesota Wild
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 863

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Auston Matthews's next team is the Minnesota Wild before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26DLARKIN71-MIN

What will be Dylan Larkin's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Minnesota Wild
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 686

YES ask: 0.6400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Dylan Larkin's next team is Minnesota Wild before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:41Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Matthews joining Minnesota does not imply Larkin also joins Minnesota, nor vice versa; independent transactions.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -81.82% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6400 + ~$0.0161 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -86.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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