Pair #10365

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-LA

What will be Auston Matthews's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Los Angeles Kings
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 785

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Auston Matthews's next team is the Los Angeles Kings before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHL-27-LA

Will Los Angeles Kings win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Los Angeles Kings
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 3466

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Los Angeles Kings wins the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:41Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Matthews joining LA Kings does not imply the Kings win the Cup, nor vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -10.11% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300 + ~$0.0020 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -14.49% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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