Pair #10364

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-DET

What will be Auston Matthews's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Detroit Red Wings
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 650

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Auston Matthews's next team is the Detroit Red Wings before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHL-27-DET

Will Detroit Red Wings win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Detroit Red Wings
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 6584

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Detroit Red Wings wins the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:41Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Matthews joining Detroit does not imply Detroit wins the Cup, nor vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -3.53% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100 + ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -7.91% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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