Pair #10362

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-CBJ

What will be Auston Matthews's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Columbus Blue Jackets
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 490

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Auston Matthews's next team is the Columbus Blue Jackets before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26ZWERENSKI8-CBJ

What will be Zach Werenski's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Columbus Blue Jackets
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 243

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.9800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Zach Werenski's next team is Columbus Blue Jackets before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:41Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Matthews joining Columbus does not imply Werenski also joins Columbus, nor vice versa; they are independent player transactions.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -89.92% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9700 + ~$0.0020 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -94.30% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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