Pair #10361

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-CBJ

What will be Auston Matthews's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNHL
Entity: Columbus Blue Jackets
Expiration: 2026-11-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 490

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Auston Matthews's next team is the Columbus Blue Jackets before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNHL-27-CBJ

Will Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?

Series: KXNHL
Entity: Columbus Blue Jackets
Expiration: 2027-07-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 859

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Columbus Blue Jackets wins the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:15:41Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Matthews joining Columbus does not imply Columbus wins the Cup, nor vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -10.11% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300 + ~$0.0020 est. fees
Days to maturity: 108
Hurdle yield: 4.38%
Excess yield: -14.49% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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